Can overseas demand reverse off-season when paper prices fall


Some small and medium-sized paper factories have been reducing the price of paper, and the price of paper is falling

The market will decline after months of crazy price rise, finally, the paper price rise momentum in early March shows fatigue, the market bearish voice is more and more strong.

With the continuous decline of waste paper price, pulp price index fell, and the vast rise was restrained and began to have a downward trend.

Recently, there are gradually some small and medium-sized paper mills in China to adjust prices in the form of price reduction or preferential treatment. Many paper factories in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan and other places have recently cut the paper price, and the preferential range is mostly 50-150 yuan / ton.

Market bearish voice is more and more intense and the wait-and-see attitude is strong

At the same time, among several customer groups, many downstream carton factories have shown strong bearish on the market paper price. At present, the order market is not hot. Many people say that it is not urgent to place an order. Today, the order may be reduced again tomorrow, and the attitude of waiting is more stable.

Moreover, some cartons factory said that the current factory orders are relatively flat, the factory own inventory supply is sufficient, also do not need to purchase special.

The lower order quantity and the cooling of market demand are the main reasons for the price reduction of small and medium sized paper factories in some regions.

Although the price drop trend among small and medium-sized paper factories in some regions is very eager to move, everyone’s eyes are always on the actions of leading paper enterprises in the industry. After all, the trend of the leading is the wind vane of the whole industry. Whether it is the price rise or the price drop, the speech right of the industry leader is very important.

However, not long ago, nine dragon paper industry announced on March 8, the price of 50-300 yuan / ton. However, the price increase area mainly concentrated on white board paper, while corrugated paper used by carton packaging enterprises increased only 50 yuan / ton.

So weak increase also means that nine dragon worried about the market for the price rise no longer buy? After all, in March, the market demand performance is flat, paper price rise is beginning to show a weak state, for the most important support point has begun to shake, the leaders also lost the bottom gas of price rise.

Can the off-season of March and April reverse the strong overseas demand?

Just as we look to leading paper enterprises and think that the market price cut is imminent, nine dragons once again announced the outage repair news. Quanzhou Jiulong issued a notice saying that it plans to shut down the equipment from March to April 2021. Before that, the Tianjin base of Jiulong also announced the shutdown information: five paper machines under the company will be shut down for 5-20 days from April 6 to April 30. Earlier, the industry giant Shanying international also said that three of its three bases were shut down for 6-24 days.

March and April are the off-season in the traditional sense of paper industry. Paper mills usually choose to shut down and repair in this period. One can stagger the production needs of traditional peak season, and the other can reduce the output in off-season, and the supply is less can also play a certain price protection role.

In summary, due to the market expectation of the off-season in March and April, the soaring raw paper price has entered a calm period since the Spring Festival.

At the same time, due to the price reduction of paper, the enthusiasm of paper mill production decreased, the mood of Paperboard Factory replenishment is not high, both of which are in a low level, while the end customers and carton factories accumulated nearly half a month of inventory in the early stage. After the consumption of the inventory in the carton factory, it is bound to purchase orders from the upstream with lower inventory level. Will it cause a wave of paper price small rebound? This is also a matter of concern.

Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the “abnormal” market demand cannot be viewed from the usual perspective. Under the follow-up impact of the epidemic, the production capacity of overseas market has not been fully restored, and the epidemic situation abroad has not been effectively controlled, which leads to the influx of overseas demand into domestic factories with stable epidemic control, and the foreign trade related carton orders are still in extremely vigorous state, In the case of export demand still very strong, the traditional off-season of March and April in the paper industry may be redefined.

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